Trackformer 1.1
Trackformer 1.1 is a causal tropical-cyclone route and intensity research model. It predicts position, maximum sustained wind, central pressure, radius of maximum wind, and R34/R50/R64 wind radii at six-hour leads through +120 h.
This is not an operational warning system. Do not use it for evacuation, aviation, maritime, emergency-management, or other safety-critical decisions.
Availability
The released model files are under models/trackformer_1_1/.
Causal Input Boundary
Inputs are restricted to data available at the forecast issue time or earlier:
- observed IBTrACS track and intensity history;
- atmospheric analysis fields available at or before the issue time;
- causal nearby-storm and basin-context summaries;
- static geography and land/sea features in the prepared packet.
The model does not use JMA, JTWC, ECMWF, GFS, GEFS, DeepMind, or another agency's forecast track or positive-lead weather field as an input. Later observations and best-track labels are verification data only.
Outputs
For 20 six-hour leads, the model returns track latitude/longitude, maximum sustained wind, central pressure, radius of maximum wind, and four-quadrant R34/R50/R64 radii. Radius values are non-negative and the structure head preserves R34 >= R50 >= R64.
Files
The repository contains the 1.1 Python modules, calibration, normalization statistics, and seed checkpoints. The GitHub release archive is the authoritative packaged-weight download.
Usage
Install the pinned requirements, construct an issue packet using only the causal inputs above, and use the included 1.1 prediction wrapper. Preserve validity masks for missing radius or analysis values. Never substitute a later observation or an official forecast for a missing input. Verify any saved forecast against the later realized IBTrACS track only after the issue-time forecast has been frozen.